A robust multiple-objective decision-making paradigm based on the water-energy-food security nexus under changing climate uncertainties

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability; The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.From the perspective of the water-energy-food (WEF) security nexus, sustainable water-related infrastructure may hinge on multi-dimensional decision-making, which is subject to some level of uncertainties imposed by internal or external sources such as climate change. It is important to note that the impact of this phenomenon is not solely limited to the changing behavior patterns of hydro-climatic variables since it can also affect the other pillars of the WEF nexus both directly and indirectly. Failing to address these issues can be costly, especially for those projects with long-lasting economic lifetimes such as hydropower systems. Ideally, a robust plan can tolerate these projected changes in climatic behavior and their associated impacts on other sectors, while maintaining an acceptable performance concerning environmental, socio-economic, and technical factors. This study, thus, aims to develop a robust multiple-objective decision-support framework to address these concerns. In principle, while this framework is sensitive to the uncertainties associated with the climate change projections, it can account for the intricacies that are commonly associated with the WEF security network. To demonstrate the applicability of this new framework, the Karkheh River basin in Iran was selected as a case study due to its critical role in ensuring water, energy, and food security of the region. In addition to the status quo, a series of climate change projections (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) were integrated into the proposed decision support framework as well. Resultantly, the mega decision matrix for this problem was composed of 56 evaluation criteria and 27 feasible alternatives. A TOPSIS/Entropy method was used to select the most robust renovation plan for a hydropower system in the basin by creating a robust and objective weighting mechanism to quantify the role of each sector in the decision-making process. Accordingly, in this case, the energy, food, and environment sectors are objectively more involved in the decision-making process. The results revealed that the role of the social aspect is practically negligible. The results also unveiled that while increasing the power plant capacity or the plant factor would be, seemingly, in favor of the energy sector, if all relevant factors are to be considered, the overall performance of the system might resultantly become sub-optimal, jeopardizing the security of other aspects of the water-energy-food nexus.Iran National Science Foundation (INSF

Forensic engineering analysis applied to flood control

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordFloods have various impacts, including loss of life and damage to property. Flood- management reservoirs can help mitigate floods, but their operation can also worsen flood impacts. This paper presents a novel forensic engineering approach to assess the role of reservoir operation on flood control. Fourteen criteria are employed for assessing forecast-based prereleases of water from reservoir storage to reduce the impact of flooding. The proposed approach is applied for forensic assessment of the system performance of reservoirs during the large flood of 2019 in southwestern Iran (the Great Karun Basin). The two main study areas are in the sub-basins of Karun and Dez. Results concerning two key performance criteria (the peak discharge reduction (PDR) and flood volume reduction (FVR)) show the PDR criterion in the Karun sub-basin multi-reservoir system reached about 79% (where 100% is the theoretically best performance) under historic operations (actual operating conditions in 2019), and improved from 8 to 19% if various prerelease operations were made. The FVR achieved about 33% in the historical situation and improved from 20 to 59% under prerelease operations scenarios, respectively. The PDR criterion achieved 26% under the historical scenario, but with better operation could exceed 55% in the Dez sub-basin multi-reservoir system, whereas FVR was as low as 11% in 2019 but could be raised to between 15 and 25% under prerelease operations. This forensic work's assessments establish that improved reservoir operation could be achieved by applying specialized operation approaches.Iran National Science Foundation (INSF